With the rising rupee and forecasts of a slump in the US economy, the IT sector though still hot will not don the role of driving Indian economy in the next decade. Manufacturing sector will perform as it always does: slowly yet steadily under the shadow of big brother China and chained with bureaucratic wrangles and populism. Biotechnology could not sustain its early promise and will not be a high growth sector in the near future. Banking and Financial Services sector is set for a bumpy ride with the complete implementation of Bassel 2 norms resulting in the opening up of the Indian Banking Sector to Foreign banks and Financial Institutions fully from 2009. Pharma embarks on an equally treacherous path with the implementation of TRIPS making the implementation of IPR laws in India stricter. What are the sectors then that are likely to drive India's economy into the projected high trajectory growth of over 8% in the next decade?
The first would be the Infrastructure Sector. With predictions of close to 5 billion dollars of investment in this sector in the next decade, Infrastructure Sector is set for a rapid growth. High Growth areas within Infrastructure would be Energy, steel, cement, telecom, real estate, construction, metals, aggro products and power.
Next on my list is the Retail sector. Organized Retail is set for a huge take off despite facing opposition from all fronts. But it is becoming indispensable as the huge middle class demands better quality, ease of shopping, more value for its money and more variety. As a result, Retail Sector is set to grow 4 folds in the next 5 years and will create job opportunities for millions.
Auto parts and ancillary industries will also see huge business in the next decade with the offshoring model of the IT being successfully replicated here. Indigenous parts production will satisfy the requirements of not just the domestic demand but also of the auto markets located abroad with the low cost bug catching up. China, however, would be a tough competitor in this sector.
So if you have some money, please invest in these sectors and reap the benefits :)
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Saturday, December 15, 2007
What Ails my Country!!
I apologize right away if I might sound a touch pessimistic about my country in this article. Till a few months back, I was quite satisfied and happy with the pace of reforms in India. But a business visit to an economic powerhouse of the world changed my perception. Japan, unlike UK and many other European nations, is not a country which boasts of a rich past but one which has risen from the ashes and has steadily built its economic empire and has even managed to challenge the might of the US economy. And all this within a span of 50 years.
India, on the other hand, has lumbered through the last 60 years of independence to stand where it is today. I admit that the state of affairs in India at the time of independence cannot be compared to that which was in Japan after the atomic attack. The ruin in India's case was more social than economic or political. The scars, inflicted by years of oppression and subjugation that had affected the mental and social fabric of the diaspora, are still visible today and its reverberations can be felt even today.
After being guilty of digressing in the last two paragraphs, I would like to come to the point which directly answers the question that I have sought to name this article with - "What Ails my Country". The feeling of insecurity among its denizens. Why do i say that would be the question arising in the minds of those of you who have managed to read this far. The people in Nippon have a very simple edict that they abide to. Every action of theirs is governed by this rule. "The Nation comes first followed by the organization for which they work, then the family and the last and certainly the least comes the individual." In India, its just the opposite. The self takes the prominence followed by family, caste and regional considerations and by the time we think about the country, there is hardly anything or anyone left. Now what best explains this tendency among us? Its the insecurity of survival embedded in our subconscious which drives us to act the way we do.
In our early days of independence, we were the legacy of considerable periods of subjugation. The long awaited independence came as a sudden found luxury and became a tool for misusing the democracy. The insecurity, however, would not be erased from the minds of the people so easily. This resulted in socialistic economic policies that promised security at the cost of creativity and gave rise to widespread corruption, overbearing bureaucrats and babudom and the tendency to place the individual interests first. Time has churned the past generation with the present one which is now at the fore of the affairs in the country. The present generation has not witnessed the subjugation as was witnessed by generation of the past. Why then do our tendencies still remain the same that is individualistic in nature? The reason as you might have already guessed is that we are still insecure. This insecurity is the result of another phenomenon that gripped our society after independence. The baby boom or the population explosion. Our resources are limited but due to the rising population, the strain on them is enormous. We are all fighting for a share in the limited resources and the fear of being left out is deeply ensconced in our subconscious. Right from our school days, we are told not to share our work with others so that we don't lose the advantage that we might have gained over others.
Now how are these individualistic tendencies affecting India. They have a direct bearing on the state of the nation as they are prevalent in every horizon of our society. From the policy makers to a poor farmer, every decision taken is in the best interest of the individual. The result is a stuttering nation that knows what is the best for it but does not have the will or willingness to implement it. How can we get rid of this malaise? In my opinion, there is just one way out of the mess that we are in today. Control our population so that we can give our posteriors a chance to lead a quality life , lessen the burden on our resources and eradicate the burden of insecurity from their lives forever.
India, on the other hand, has lumbered through the last 60 years of independence to stand where it is today. I admit that the state of affairs in India at the time of independence cannot be compared to that which was in Japan after the atomic attack. The ruin in India's case was more social than economic or political. The scars, inflicted by years of oppression and subjugation that had affected the mental and social fabric of the diaspora, are still visible today and its reverberations can be felt even today.
After being guilty of digressing in the last two paragraphs, I would like to come to the point which directly answers the question that I have sought to name this article with - "What Ails my Country". The feeling of insecurity among its denizens. Why do i say that would be the question arising in the minds of those of you who have managed to read this far. The people in Nippon have a very simple edict that they abide to. Every action of theirs is governed by this rule. "The Nation comes first followed by the organization for which they work, then the family and the last and certainly the least comes the individual." In India, its just the opposite. The self takes the prominence followed by family, caste and regional considerations and by the time we think about the country, there is hardly anything or anyone left. Now what best explains this tendency among us? Its the insecurity of survival embedded in our subconscious which drives us to act the way we do.
In our early days of independence, we were the legacy of considerable periods of subjugation. The long awaited independence came as a sudden found luxury and became a tool for misusing the democracy. The insecurity, however, would not be erased from the minds of the people so easily. This resulted in socialistic economic policies that promised security at the cost of creativity and gave rise to widespread corruption, overbearing bureaucrats and babudom and the tendency to place the individual interests first. Time has churned the past generation with the present one which is now at the fore of the affairs in the country. The present generation has not witnessed the subjugation as was witnessed by generation of the past. Why then do our tendencies still remain the same that is individualistic in nature? The reason as you might have already guessed is that we are still insecure. This insecurity is the result of another phenomenon that gripped our society after independence. The baby boom or the population explosion. Our resources are limited but due to the rising population, the strain on them is enormous. We are all fighting for a share in the limited resources and the fear of being left out is deeply ensconced in our subconscious. Right from our school days, we are told not to share our work with others so that we don't lose the advantage that we might have gained over others.
Now how are these individualistic tendencies affecting India. They have a direct bearing on the state of the nation as they are prevalent in every horizon of our society. From the policy makers to a poor farmer, every decision taken is in the best interest of the individual. The result is a stuttering nation that knows what is the best for it but does not have the will or willingness to implement it. How can we get rid of this malaise? In my opinion, there is just one way out of the mess that we are in today. Control our population so that we can give our posteriors a chance to lead a quality life , lessen the burden on our resources and eradicate the burden of insecurity from their lives forever.
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