Hottest Sectors in the next decade

With the rising rupee and forecasts of a slump in the US economy, the IT sector though still hot will not don the role of driving Indian economy in the next decade. Manufacturing sector will perform as it always does: slowly yet steadily under the shadow of big brother China and chained with bureaucratic wrangles and populism. Biotechnology could not sustain its early promise and will not be a high growth sector in the near future. Banking and Financial Services sector is set for a bumpy ride with the complete implementation of Bassel 2 norms resulting in the opening up of the Indian Banking Sector to Foreign banks and Financial Institutions fully from 2009. Pharma embarks on an equally treacherous path with the implementation of TRIPS making the implementation of IPR laws in India stricter. What are the sectors then that are likely to drive India's economy into the projected high trajectory growth of over 8% in the next decade?

The first would be the Infrastructure Sector. With predictions of close to 5 billion dollars of investment in this sector in the next decade, Infrastructure Sector is set for a rapid growth. High Growth areas within Infrastructure would be Energy, steel, cement, telecom, real estate, construction, metals, aggro products and power.

Next on my list is the Retail sector. Organized Retail is set for a huge take off despite facing opposition from all fronts. But it is becoming indispensable as the huge middle class demands better quality, ease of shopping, more value for its money and more variety. As a result, Retail Sector is set to grow 4 folds in the next 5 years and will create job opportunities for millions.

Auto parts and ancillary industries will also see huge business in the next decade with the offshoring model of the IT being successfully replicated here. Indigenous parts production will satisfy the requirements of not just the domestic demand but also of the auto markets located abroad with the low cost bug catching up. China, however, would be a tough competitor in this sector.

So if you have some money, please invest in these sectors and reap the benefits :)

What Ails my Country!!

I apologize right away if I might sound a touch pessimistic about my country in this article. Till a few months back, I was quite satisfied and happy with the pace of reforms in India. But a business visit to an economic powerhouse of the world changed my perception. Japan, unlike UK and many other European nations, is not a country which boasts of a rich past but one which has risen from the ashes and has steadily built its economic empire and has even managed to challenge the might of the US economy. And all this within a span of 50 years.

India, on the other hand, has lumbered through the last 60 years of independence to stand where it is today. I admit that the state of affairs in India at the time of independence cannot be compared to that which was in Japan after the atomic attack. The ruin in India's case was more social than economic or political. The scars, inflicted by years of oppression and subjugation that had affected the mental and social fabric of the diaspora, are still visible today and its reverberations can be felt even today.

After being guilty of digressing in the last two paragraphs, I would like to come to the point which directly answers the question that I have sought to name this article with - "What Ails my Country". The feeling of insecurity among its denizens. Why do i say that would be the question arising in the minds of those of you who have managed to read this far. The people in Nippon have a very simple edict that they abide to. Every action of theirs is governed by this rule. "The Nation comes first followed by the organization for which they work, then the family and the last and certainly the least comes the individual." In India, its just the opposite. The self takes the prominence followed by family, caste and regional considerations and by the time we think about the country, there is hardly anything or anyone left. Now what best explains this tendency among us? Its the insecurity of survival embedded in our subconscious which drives us to act the way we do.

In our early days of independence, we were the legacy of considerable periods of subjugation. The long awaited independence came as a sudden found luxury and became a tool for misusing the democracy. The insecurity, however, would not be erased from the minds of the people so easily. This resulted in socialistic economic policies that promised security at the cost of creativity and gave rise to widespread corruption, overbearing bureaucrats and babudom and the tendency to place the individual interests first. Time has churned the past generation with the present one which is now at the fore of the affairs in the country. The present generation has not witnessed the subjugation as was witnessed by generation of the past. Why then do our tendencies still remain the same that is individualistic in nature? The reason as you might have already guessed is that we are still insecure. This insecurity is the result of another phenomenon that gripped our society after independence. The baby boom or the population explosion. Our resources are limited but due to the rising population, the strain on them is enormous. We are all fighting for a share in the limited resources and the fear of being left out is deeply ensconced in our subconscious. Right from our school days, we are told not to share our work with others so that we don't lose the advantage that we might have gained over others.

Now how are these individualistic tendencies affecting India. They have a direct bearing on the state of the nation as they are prevalent in every horizon of our society. From the policy makers to a poor farmer, every decision taken is in the best interest of the individual. The result is a stuttering nation that knows what is the best for it but does not have the will or willingness to implement it. How can we get rid of this malaise? In my opinion, there is just one way out of the mess that we are in today. Control our population so that we can give our posteriors a chance to lead a quality life , lessen the burden on our resources and eradicate the burden of insecurity from their lives forever.

The Japan Diaries - 1

The last couple of months have been hectic and draining. Gathering Requirements from a Japanese client can be as difficult as getting the Left Parties to change their ideology. But now, having finished my work in Japan, and being in the fag end of the project with very little work, I finally got some time and enthusiasm to update the blog. There is a lot to write especially about my travel to Japan. As always, I have a lot of observations which have resulted in a lot of opinions and comparisons.
Being in Japan was like being in a different world altogether very different from the one that we have been born and brought up in. It seems difficult to believe that the country has made such rapid strides in the last 60 years. But the biggest difference that came to my observation was the people. Never in my life before have I come across people so polite and respecting. Not even once, in my three months in Japan, did I encounter a single incident of any person even talking in a raised voice to another let alone the question of witnessing a fight or a brawl. Japan does not have a history of non-violence (samurais and the world war 2) and this behaviour of its people really stumped me. But I had to accept it. They are the most well behaved and courteous people that I have come across till date.
As for the country, it has everything that you expect a developed nation to have. Good Roads, unlimited power, a very effective public transport system to name a few. Now to mention a few downsides, the first one would obviously be the language. English is still a language which very few in Japan know or understand. It is not even a second language in schools from what I have been told. So any foreigner has a very difficult time in communicating and if it is a long stay in Japan, learning the local language is necessary. The next will be the expense. Tokyo is a very expensive city and the general well being of the people has spiraled the prices of everything there.
In short, I found Japan to be a small and a quiet place with a world of its own untouched by the world outside with its own language, culture and heritage and offering its people a life full of security, independence and worry free environment.

Apocalypto

Another movie I feel compelled to write about in my blog. I had not even heard of Apocalypto till the time Arun told me that he had got us two tickets for it. We were in Chennai for a week and passing time after office hours was a big challenge. So our game plan was to exhaust every possible movie being screened in Chennai and which was in a language intelligible to us. But Apocalypto, as it turned out, wasn't. Its a movie filmed in Yucatec Maya, a language spoken in the Mayan civilization.

The movie is about a man's experience during the decay and subsequent end of a highly advanced Mayan civilization. The depiction of slavery and sacrifices practiced by the Mayans make the film brutal and gory to watch. But the movie has been shot in a way that makes every action seem realistic. The scenes in the forest, the hunting scene at the beginning and the waterfall scene to mention a few. The actors have done their best and none is a misfit. The prophecy of the leprosy infected girl adds an element of thrill and supernatural in the movie.

Mel Gibson has done a wonderful job as the director and for his choice of subject. His effort to present the long lost civilization and to showcase the gradual decline of highly advanced civilization is commendable.

As he says in the opening quote

"A great civilization is not conquered from without until it is destroyed from within"

Top 5 Professions that i would have liked to be in!!

I have ended up as an Operations and Supply Chain consultant!! But let me tell you what are the top 5 professions I would have loved to be in.

1. Rhythm guitarist and lead vocalist of a music band..money, fame, women..is there anything that these guys don't have!!( a successful one though :))
2. Cricket Commentator who gets to see all the India's matches free of cost from the press box, makes free foreign trips, gets the right to bash the cricketers and then gets paid for it!! (Harsha Bhogle..are you reading?)
3. A blabbering VJ who gets paid for all the nonsense he dishes out and also gets an opportunity to be surrounded with good looking chicks
4. Mallika Sherawat's body guard!! ( do i need to explain why)
5. born as an ameer baap ki not-so-bigdi aulaad so that i wouldn't be required to write such crap on such sadistic topics

The Pursuit of Happiness

This is one of the best movies I have seen in the recent times. I liked it so much that I was compelled to write a review on it on my blog.

Will Smith acts in this touching true story of a man who struggles through poverty, broken marriage and lack of formal education (read degrees) to achieve happiness. Giving him company are his son and his determination and confidence. The manner in which he bears all the responsiblities and difficulties without shedding a tear and still manages to outperform everyone in a highly competitive batch of wannabe stock brokers in heart warming.

As for the way this movie has been shot, fantastic is the word. The movie has a quiet feel to it and doesn't go to the extent of getting melodramatic to show the emotions as most of our Hindi movies do. The direction is fabulous and the director is successful in making the audience feel the hardships that the characters face. The dialogues are such that they will be etched in the memory for a long time. One of my favourites is when Will Smith talks about happiness and says that someone has rightly said that happiness can only be pursued and can never be had.

My view...go and watch this must watch movie!!

What plagues Indian Cricket

After the dismal showing of the Indian Cricket Team in the 2007 Cricket World Cup, Newspaper, Blogs, Magazines and all the other mediums are currently carrying a surfeit of articles from former cricketers, current cricketers, experts, commentators and media men who have laid threadbare the problems afflicting the Indian Cricket. My article in just another drop in the ocean coming from a fan who has no worthwhile experience of playing cricket other than being a regular follower of the game. Therefore, armed with the little knowledge I have in cricket and using the the methods of process improvement and methods, I have tried to analyze what has gone wrong with Indian cricket.

But first, lets be honest to ourselves. Has something really gone wrong? I beg to differ. We have always been an average cricketing side with sporadic moments of glory . As far as I look into the past, I realize one thing. Our cricket team has always been composed of 3 or 4 naturally talented players with average cricketers completing the line up. Isn't this true even today? Why do we struggle to find even 20 extraordinary cricketers in a nation that accounts for more than 1/6th of the humanity of the world and which is cricket crazy. Why are our cricketers so inconsistent? Why do our dropped cricketers lament their exclusion inspite of their poor performances? The answer lies in the fact that our system produces very average cricketers.I have no qualms in admitting that our players lack in ability compared to stronger teams such as Australia or even Sri Lanka. Is there any use, therefore, in brickbating the players? They are doing what they can do best. We are expecting more than what they can accomplish.

Today we are not in a position to drop some of our most inconsistent performers simply because we don't have a bench strength to replace them.

The real problem lies in our infrastructure. We produce some of the worst fielders in the world, we have the most insipid bowling attack in the world (even Bangladesh has more sting in its attack), not even one fast bowler with express pace, not one fast bowler who can reverse swing at some pace and the less we talk we talk about the spinners the better. Our batsmen struggle on hard, bouncy, seaming, slow, spinning and all possible kinds of tracks that are known to exist. The only pitches where I have seen our batsmen flowering are the flat tailor made pitches for one day cricket in the subcontinent. Why? Who is to blame?

The administration ofcourse. Despite not wining outside the subcontinent in last 15-20 years, we still have not made any efforts to change the nature of pitches. Does the grassroot infrastructure make sure that good talent is spotted, supported, given the best of cricketing knowledge and relief from the other necessities of life so that he can concentrated fully on the game? Does our system ensure that he gets exposed to a competitive brand of cricket at the domestic level so that he is mentally strong and prepared to face the intricacies of International cricket. International Cricket is more about having the right attitude and mental strength. The NewZeland Cricket Team is the best example of this. Their team have some of the most average but mentally tough cricketers and they play their cricket the hard way. While our cricketers though more talented often fail to perform at that level. I can take numerous names who though extremely successful at the domestic level failed miserably at the International level.

I think we all now what is wrong with Indian cricket but the lackadaisical attitude of our administrators, who are more interested in making money and internal bickerings than in finding out and implementing a set up that acts as a long term solution and a panacea for the cricketing ills afflicting our country, will ensure that we continue to mantain our position in the bottom rungs of the cricketing ladder.

Songs I would love to play on the guitar

Here goes another list

1. Rotterdam- Beautiful South

2. Aicha- Outlandish

3. Want you Back- Take That

4. Soak up the Sun- Sheryl Crow

5. Hand in my Pocket- Alanis Morisette

6. Annie's Song- John Denver

7. Fast Car- Tracy Chapman

Songs I love playing on the guitar

Listed here are some of the songs that I love to play on the guitar. They follow no particular order and are listed based on the order of occurence in my memory

1. Save Tonight - Eagle-eye Cherry

2. Thats Why - MLTR

3. Sleeping Child- MLTR

4. O Sanam- Lucky Ali

5. Bow Down Mister- Boy George

6. Kiss Me - Sixpence None the Richer

7. Talking about a Revolution - Tracy Chapman

8. Don't Marry Her- Beautiful South

9. Good Riddance (Time of your life)- Green Day

10. Roobaru- Rang De Basanti
11. And then he kissed me- The Crystals

Will keep updating this list!!

New beginnings

Long time eh!!

Have I been busy? Yes and No. Yes because there have been lots of developments lately which have kept me a little busy. I added another company to the list of the companies that I have worked in. I have left i2 and joined IBM in their consulting division at Gurgaon. So I am back home. I have joined as a Process Consultant in Supply Chain Strategy and right now I am enjoying my time on bench :).

Apart from that, I have also got an admit from NUS. So this is another decision that I have to take in the coming days.

Railways

Key Statistics

- Indian Railways is the 2nd largest rail network in the world and the largest in Asia
- Indian Railway network is spread over 81,511 Km covering 6,896 stations
- Operating Ratio has improved from 98 to 91 and a target has been set to bring it down further to 87

Current Issue

- Dedicated Freight Corridor
- Public-Private Partnership
- Rail land development
- Rationalization of Freight Tarrif

Roadways: The lifeline of trade and commerce

The entire network is classified into five distinct categories perhaps from the viewpoint of management and administration. The five categories are:
- National Highways (NH)
- State Highways (SH)
- Major District Roads (MDR)
- Other District Roads (ODR)
- Village Roads (VR)

Key Statistics

- India has the second largest road network in the world with a total network of 3.3 million kms.
- It carries 65% of freight and 85% of passenger traffic
- The National Highways comprise 2% of the road network and carry 40% of the road based traffic
- The State Highways comprise 4% of the road network
- State Highways (SHs) and Major District Roads (MDRs) constitute the secondary system of road infrastructure of India
- The secondary system caries about 40 per cent of the total road traffic and comprises about 20% of the total road length
- Only 47% of the India's roads are paved
- The average productivity of a truck is 200 kms a day as against 350- 400 kms that would be possible through reduction of congestion
- There has been a staggering 100 fold increase in the population of motorized vehicles, however, only a 8 fold increase in terms of road length during the same period

National Highway Development Program

Phase1- Four or Six laning of the National Highways between Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai popularly known as the Golden Quadrilateral comprising around 6000kms.

Phase2- Development of National Highways on the North-South and East-West Corridor comprising 7300 Kms

Phase3- Upgrading of existing NHs, two laning of imp. roads and expansion of crowded NHs to 6 lanes comprising 10500 Kms

Phase4- 4 to 6 laning of addtional 6000 kms of NHs

Phase5- Widen 4000 kms of NHs to 6 lanes

Phase6- Imp. highways would be converted into expressways

Phase7- Construction of ring roads in cities for proper regulation of traffic

Issues

- Rationalization of Motor Vehicle Tax regime
- Urban and Rural Transport Policy which facilitates land acquisition, shifting of utilities, approval for cutting of trees, control of law and order and encroachments
- Encourage the use of multi-axle vehicle
- Technology upgrade for bus and truck manufacturing